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Last week, a number of polyester factories lowered the short quotation of polyester, and the overall decline was about 100 yuan/ton.
This week, some polyester factories reduced the quotation of polyester filament, down 150-200 yuan/ton.
First staple fiber, and filament, the current round of polyester price rise is finally coming to an end?
The price increase is over, and the price is partly down
Since June, the spot liquidity of staple fiber has continued to tighten, factory inventories are at a low level, and the base difference of staple fiber and processing fees have gradually strengthened. Filament manufacturers began to focus on the new model of "anchoring processing fees to reverse adjust the operating rate" to support the price and profit war, and mainstream staple fiber manufacturers immediately "have a sample", and the price attitude is more determined.
Filament, from late May to early July, nearly 6 weeks, polyester filament ushered in a continuous rise, the cumulative increase is not small, the price fluctuation of different specifications is basically between 500-700 yuan/ton.
In terms of short fiber, since June 18, the closing price of the main contract of short fiber has risen from 7,440 yuan/ton to more than 7,800 yuan/ton.
However, last week, the price of polyester filament remained weak and stable, and the price of polyester staple fiber began to correction, and the price of polyester filament in some polyester factories fell this week.
Profits are recovering and demand is shrinking
The fall in raw material prices is related to the reduction in demand and the restoration of profits.
Upstream, this year polyester back to the boom cycle, supply and demand pattern expected preference, in June under the filament and staple fiber meeting agreement, the filament factory gradually implement production reduction, according to the head and surrounding filament factory production reduction of 10%, affecting polyester load in 3-4%, the current polyester load from April high 93% fell to close to 88% load.
From the profit point of view, with the upstream PX, PTA prices continue to fall, polyester filament profit has actually returned to a more reasonable range.
In the downstream aspect, the recent printing and dyeing and weaving industry has a declining trend, the new order is not good, the workshop is not enough, and the workshop rotation is the norm. Domestic trade in the autumn and winter there are signs of start-up, but only just need a small order issued, the market has not been fully implemented, the local dyeing factory within the week is still at a low level, the market has not been significantly positive, and into the high temperature and hot weather, some weaving manufacturers open probability decline, especially the round machine open probability is at a low level, water spray open probability is still high. Taking into account the high temperature, rainy season, cost and low demand under the drag, manufacturers' risk aversion is rising, in the short term, printing and dyeing, weaving industry still has a downward trend.
Supply and demand are tight, and the right to speak is back
Although the current price of some manufacturers of polyester filament has been loosened, the overall production capacity of polyester factories at this stage is more limited, and some polyester factories are only short-term promotional shipments, and the raw material prices of several polyester factories are still strong.
At the beginning of this round of polyester filament price increases in late May, it was initiated by several polyester factories, and they issued a price increase notice, supplemented by certain production reduction measures, which pulled the polyester price. In the first few days, the price of raw materials is not consistent, at the same time as the price of polyester in the big factory, some smaller polyester factories are in the promotion of shipments, until the inventory returns to the low level, only to follow the price increase with the big factory. Therefore, when the inventory problem strikes again, it is understandable to choose to reduce the price to the warehouse, in order to calculate the profit of the polyester that has been repaired at present, even if there is a small decline in price, the polyester factory is still profitable.
In contrast, polyester manufacturers in addition to the pursuit of profits, to regain the right to speak of price is also a top priority. In the past three years, due to the rapid expansion of polyester production capacity, and the frequent occurrence of global black swan events triggered demand fluctuations, polyester filament prices are not booming, and promotion has become the norm. However, by 2024, the current round of growth cycle of polyester filament production capacity has basically ended, and weaving production capacity is still in a period of rapid growth, and the supply and demand of filament are tight, returning to the business cycle.
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