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On August 19, PTA futures prices fell sharply, falling 192 points in a single day, a drop of up to 3.45%!
Why does PTA have such a big downward trend in the near future?
Crude oil: The direct cause of price impact
From the surface, the direct factor of this round of PTA decline is the lower international oil prices. Recently, due to the temporary easing of the situation in the Middle East and the release of poor economic data in the United States, combined with the growing expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, international oil prices have fallen continuously.
However, we also see that the recent trend of international oil prices is not all the way down, in early August, because of the assassination of Hamas leaders in Iran, the situation in the Middle East was once very tense, and international oil prices in the short term appeared a wave of nearly 8% rebound.
However, at that time, the rebound of international oil prices did not significantly stimulate the PTA price, PTA showed a trend of falling and not rising during this period, although the oil price is the direct reason for the decline of PTA, but the recent weak performance of PTA must have other factors.
Polyester filament: in the boom cycle
In the polyester industry chain, PTA and PX are no longer strong, and polyester filament has entered a strong period.
Because filament is a necessary raw material in the weaving process, which directly affects the profits of the order, textile enterprises are usually more sensitive to the price of polyester filament.
After entering this year, it can be clearly felt that polyester filament has entered the boom cycle, and the profit center of the polyester industry chain has shifted to the filament end. On the one hand, after 2024, if the backward production capacity is eliminated, the filament production capacity can even form a negative growth; On the other hand, it is because the concentration of filament production capacity has been further improved in recent years, and the voice of leading manufacturers has been increasing.
The polyester industry is a clearly cyclical industry, and after 2024, the cycle has shifted from the upstream PX and PTA to the filament end.
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